MOJO News AFL Finals Week 2 Preview

BY CLANCY CHESTER

The first round of the AFL finals gave us plenty to think about leading into the second week. Tensions are high and there’s no turning back, here are our thoughts on this week’s semi finals matchups.

Geelong vs GWS

Optus Stadium, Perth, Friday 7:50pm

The Cats will look to bounce back after a dismal performance against The Power last weekend, seeing them go down by 43 points. If they manage to get over the hump, they’ll make their third preliminary final in a row.

Meanwhile the Giants, having scraped through to the second week with a nail-biting one-point win over Sydney, are hoping to cause a major upset.

Both sides suffered losses last weekend, with Geelong’s Mark O’Connor set to miss this week's fixture after sustaining a hamstring strain, whilst the Giants will be without Tom Green after suffering a season-ending fracture in his arm. However, the huge out for the Giants will be that of Toby Greene, whose season is over after he was hit with a three match ban from making intentional contact with an umpire. 

For Geelong, Zac Tuohy looks to be available, after his recovery from his hamstring injury, whilst the Giants will look to welcome back Bobby Hill and Conor Stone into the side.

What needs to go right: Geelong

Against Port Adelaide, the Cats were restricted from playing their brand of possession football, racking up far fewer uncontested possessions than they would have liked to. Playing a side who can use the ball as clinically as the Giants, Geelong can’t afford to let them dictate the flow of the game.

The Cats will also need to improve on finding their way inside 50 and keeping it there. In their last two matches, they have been dominated in both inside 50s and tackles inside 50, whilst only managing 37% disposal efficiency. 

In their past two outings against the Giants, Geelong have led in possession, but lost the games. More will need to be done this weekend in ensuring that they don’t pass up on the chances that they have the ability to create for their forwards.

What needs to go right: GWS

Last week, the Giants were lethal with their clearance work, scoring four goals directly off stoppages. This type of dominance will be crucial against a side averaging the third most clearances in the competition. 

The Cats really struggled last week against Port Adelaide’s small forwards, so expect to see the Giants utilizing their pressure and groundwork inside their front half. However, without Greene, the Giants may struggle to find a high scoring alternative from this avenue, especially if Tuohy is to return at half-back. 

The Giants’ big man defenders will also have their hands full this weekend, with Sam Taylor and Nick Haynes presumably taking on the jobs of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron. As we saw last week however against the Power, if they can keep these two quiet, the Giants will have a real chance of winning this one.

Finals Thoughts

The Giants may have the momentum coming into this matchup with their recent form and will definitely put up a fight. Unfortunately, the loss of Toby Greene might make getting past a seasoned Geelong side one step too far. Experience will prevail here.

Prediction

Cats by 24

Brisbane vs Western Bulldogs

The Gabba, Brisbane, Saturday 7:20pm

After falling to the Demons by 33 in the first week of finals, the Lions will be looking to make amends and see their way through to the preliminaries in front of a home crowd. 

As for the Bulldogs, their season might just be back on track when they need it most. A dominant performance against the Bombers, seeing them cruise to a 49-point win, may be the spark they need to overcome a formidable Brisbane outfit.

For the Lions, defender Ryan Lester looks certain to return from his hamstring injury. However, Callum Ah Chee will be out after his groin injury sustained last weekend. No changes have been made for the Bulldogs with both Zaine Cordy and Hayden Crozier missing out after recovering from illness and concussion, respectively. Young gun Ed Richards still looks doubtful to play with his shoulder injury.

What needs to go right: Brisbane

The Lions looked stagnant within their forward line last week, with only star small forward Charlie Cameron kicking multiple goals for them. Both their contested marks and marks inside 50 were lackluster against a Melbourne side with much more size. 

Without Daniel McStay this week, the Lions will need to rethink how they send the ball into their forward line in order for their small goal scorers, such as Lincoln McCarthy and Zac Bailey, a greater chance to make an impact.

As always, key big man Joe Daniher will need to have an impact on the game, needing to improve after just the one point in last week's loss. But more will need to be done by Brisbane’s supporting cast of forwards to ensure every entry into the 50 is a chance to score.

What needs to go right: Western Bulldogs

The midfield contest may well decide the outcome of this game, and the Bulldogs’ run’n’gun style of play will have to be going full throttle.  

The Dogs are averaging the second most handballs in the competition, with the Lions averaging the least. If the Bulldogs can move the footy quickly from stoppages, expect to see the Lions struggle against the pace of the game that centre clearance kings like Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae can create.

In particular, Liberatore’s work around stoppages will be imperative to the Bulldogs’ chances of winning. When he’s made 6 or more clearances in a game, the Doggies are 15-4 this season, when he’s got less, they have won a game (0-3). It is essential that the Bulldogs don’t allow Libba to be tagged out of this game, their season relies on it.

Final Thoughts

You could flip a coin on this one to see who wins, with both sides holding very real chances of sealing a place in the prelims. MOJO News backs the home crowd to get the Lions home.

Prediction

Lions by 9