Brexit's coming, ready or not. But how will it work?

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Theresa May is forging ahead with  Brexit.

By SYBILLA GROSS

Brexit is unfolding after the UK filed Article 50 this week – the formal exit request to the European Union.

Since the UK voted to leave the EU in June last year in a shock referendum, the British government has been left to figure out how they will exit under PM Theresa May’s leadership.

The winning "Leave" campaign was fuelled by a number of factors including economic concerns over financially struggling EU members, rules on the free movement of people, and fears of an authoritarian and over-controlling EU. 

Everyone knows a breakup is difficult, and Britain’s divorce with the European Union is no different, with its timeframe expected to be two years.

There are also two ways Britain can go about the split: the hard way or the soft way.

It sounds like the catchphrase from the Old El Paso ad, but this question may have much more dire consequences than our decision on taco shells – as difficult as that decision may seem.

Option one: the hard way

The "hard" approach to Brexit involves absolute separation. Done. Out. To the EU, Britain would be just like any other country.

The EU is a political and economic union of 28 – soon to be 27 – member states that contribute to the EU budget. It acts as a single market allowing the free movement of goods, services and people from one EU country to another.

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A satiric dig at Britain from deep within the EU last month.

If the hard approach is taken, Britain, the second largest contributor to the budget, would cease to pay the fees and therefore give up access to the single market.

Putting a stop to the free movement of people continues to have great support in Britain. However, a hard Brexit strategy would abolish all kinds of free movement with the EU, economic and otherwise.

This might mean those cheeky weekend trips to Paris may soon involve a lot more paperwork.

The issue is, being in the EU is a really good thing for trade.

Limiting trade restrictions boosts export-based industries, while a large single market like the EU encourages competitive prices.

European politics lecturer at Monash University Adam Berryman said the business world was unsupportive of the UK’s exit decision.

“There [were] strong objections from the business community and, in general, economic elites were against Brexit.”

This is unsurprising. Big London banks have hundreds of millions of customers across Europe which they currently stand to lose.

Option two: the soft way

A "soft" exit is the legal separation of the UK from the EU while still allowing the country access to the single market.

Britain won’t technically be in the EU, and won’t get to vote on trading policies, but the club will still grant them access to the large "I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine”-style market.

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Theresa May has a plan.

This is known as the "Norway solution". It would still see the UK as subject to EU rules and regulations, but without the option to have any say in them.

So much for “taking back control”, as Ms May has emphasised throughout this ordeal.

But even though the EU would prohibit the input of the UK, Mr Berryman said they shouldn’t punish the country for the decision.

“It’s a democratic decision and these are principles that the EU is founded on, and in this regard, it needs to be respected,” he said.

“[However], they need to weigh up the costs of keeping the UK in [the Union], [like] access to the markets and several other benefits.”

Which will they choose?

Unlike the family in the Old El Paso ad, Britain cannot have both the hard and the soft taco shell: they must choose.

The decision remains unmade, but one thing everyone agrees is on is that years of headache-inducing policy rewriting is inevitable.

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But the likely outcome looks like a "hard shell" solution, and this seems to be the favoured option for Leave voters considering Ms May’s determination to take back control and self-determine the entry of migrants.

The EU however, expressing extreme disappointment in the referendum’s outcome, could make the breakup as sharp as possible to deter other potential European deserters.

Brexit is finally here and it seems, unlike the Old El Paso ad, no one will be cheering at the end of these negotiations.