The new AFL season is ready to kick off so it’s time to rate all 18 sides. LAURENCE ROSEN looks at every team and analyses their prospects going into season 2017 – listing them in order of how they should finish the season.
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Top draft pick Tim Taranto looks ready to go.
1) Greater Western Sydney
Lost in the euphoria of the Bulldogs’ drought-breaking win in 2016 was the Giants failure in a home preliminary final they really should have won. The scary thing for the rest of the competition is they have only improved their list in the off-season. Top draft picks Tim Taranto and Will Setterfield look ready to go and the addition of former Tiger Brett Deledio should add experience. After last year’s stumble, anything less than a charcoal-and-orange-coloured premiership for this talented side could be considered a failure.
2) Western Bulldogs
From the hunter to the hunted. That’s the reality for 2017’s iteration of the Bulldogs now their 62-year wait for the game’s ultimate glory is now over. Winning a premiership from seventh is a monumental effort but doing so with a number of key players injured added to the fairytale. The good news for the reigning premiers is that captain Robert Murphy is back while Mitch Wallis and Jack Redpath are well on their way to making comebacks during the season. Luke Beveridge faces somewhat of a ruck injury crisis early on, which paves the way for either Grand Final hero Tom Boyd to reprise his ruck role early in the year or for draft slider Tim English to make a surprise 2017 debut.
3) Sydney Swans
What is there left to say about Sydney? They have only missed the finals once since 2002 and continue to extract the most out of every player on their list. They may face a tricky start to the year with Isaac Heeney (glandular fever), Tom Papley (knee) and Jarrad McVeigh (calf) all missing, but expect the Swans to be right up there come September. Watch out for Zak Jones, who looks ready to take the competition by storm this year
4) St Kilda
The Saints look primed for an ascent up the ladder and the only question is just how far their side will take them. Alan Richardson’s side missed finals by percentage in 2016 and that can largely be put down to their erratic form outside of Victoria – they haven’t won a game outside of their home state since 2011. Former Bomber Jake Carlisle suits up for his maiden season with the Saints, while the likes of Jack Billings, Luke Dunstan, Blake Acres and Paddy McCartin are all set for breakout seasons. The major question mark over St Kilda heading in 2017 will be their defence and their ability to stop the rot when sides pile on successive goals.
5) Melbourne
Along with St Kilda, Melbourne is arguably the most exciting prospect this year. Their fortunes largely hinge on three players – new recruit Michael Hibberd and brothers Tom and Oscar McDonald. It’s been well documented how potent Melbourne’s forward line and midfield are looking but if it is all to come together in 2017, their back six will need to improve dramatically. The older Tom McDonald is an All-Australian defender when in form, but at times his errant kicking out of defence has let the Dees down. The younger Oscar will get more game time this year and has shown glimpses of being a promising key defender in the making. Melbourne and St Kilda play each other in round 1, which for many is the game of the round and an early-season litmus test for both sides.
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Alastair Clarkson likes to shake things up.
6) Hawthorn
We know four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson likes to shake things up but no one expected Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis to be dispensed with in a brutal off-season cull. With Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara both in the door and ready to go for round 1, much of the heavy lifting in midfield rests on their shoulders. Second-tier midfielders Dan Howe, Billy Hartung, Will Langford and Kieran Lovell will all get added game time this year and would be expected to shoulder some of the burden after Mitchell's and Lewis’s departure. This is a Clarkson side, after all, and while there are a lot of questions around the Hawks this year, don’t expect them to fall down the ladder too much.
7) Geelong
Can Chris Scott coach? That’s the question we’ll have answered at season’s end. Last year brought them a preliminary final berth but as a new season beckons, the Cats still remain in a state of relative flux. The almost unhealthy reliance on Dangerfield and Selwood still remains one of the season’s more intriguing narratives, even if they hold their position from last year. The likes of Mitch Duncan, George Horlin-Smith and Nakia Cockatoo will all need to share the load if Geelong is to improve. In the modern game standing still means going backwards, so as a number of sides improve around them, can the Cats step up?
8) West Coast
The yin and yang that is the Eagles was on show in their final two games last season. Without Nic Naitanui they went over to Adelaide and beat the Crows in the final round. Fast-forward two weeks and they go towelled up with the eventual premiers at home in the elimination final. What did we learn from this? On their day, West Coast can beat anyone, but their flaky form away from home and "flat track bully" status leaves plenty questioning them. Sam Mitchell immediately makes them a better side and pre-season has shown us that Nathan Vardy and Drew Petrie may prove to be shrewd recruitments to fill the Naitanui hole in the interim. Like a lot of sides around this mark, they will have to win the close ones to make the eight.
9) Adelaide
Possessing arguably the league’s best forward line, Adelaide’s season could go one of two ways. Jake Lever could spearhead their defence and led by Rory Sloane, the Crows’ midfield could surprise and seem them push for a top four spot. But on the flipside, their failure to get the Bryce Gibbs deal done and trading of Jarryd Lyons to Gold Coast could came back to bite them and they tumble down the ladder. Their already paper-thin midfield will be tested early on with Scott Thompson and Matt Crouch missing early-season games and unlucky youngster Cam Ellis-Yolman already ruled out for the season with an ACL injury.
10) Essendon
After three pre-season games, there are more questions than answers about Essendon’s season. Will their new-look forward line click? Can Dyson Heppell and Jobe Watson anchor their young midfield? Will their defence remain their strongest part of the ground? What looks likely is that the side will take some time to find their feet back in AFL football. Rather than relying on the 10 returning players, the younger brigade led by Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and Joe Daniher will need to continue to improve if the Dons are to play finals. The first half against Geelong in the final JLT Series match showed the footy world just how good they can be when things go right but the ultimate question remains: how long will we have to wait to see their best?
11) Gold Coast
Change is afoot at the Suns. O’Meara and Prestia have moved on, four first-round draft picks have hit the ground running and off the park, they’ve finally moved out of portable offices and into AFL-standard facilities. This looms as a reset year, with a new wave of players set to make their mark. Despite finals looks a long shot this year, a visit to Metricon Stadium looks anything but a routine task, so don’t be surprised if they take a few big scalps at home throughout the season.
12) Collingwood
In Nathan Buckley’s own words, 2017 is do or die for football’s biggest club. The pressure is on across the board and only finals will do this year for the Pies. So do they make it? They’re a chance with a good injury run but much like Geelong, their second-tier players will need to step up if they stand any chance. The Pies defence remains a worry, with the injury-prone Ben Reid still largely holding it together. Every game will be like a final for Collingwood this year, adding even more intrigue to a season that looks every bit as close as 2016 on paper.
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Nat Fyfe is back from injury and looking great.
13) Fremantle
Things are relatively stable over in the west, with Ross Lyon preferring to keep things in-house as the season draws ever closer. Cam McCarthy and Brad Hill add much-needed forward half class now that Matthew Pavlich has retired but the lack of class across the board remains an issue. Their fall down the ladder in 2016 was a shock to all so the pressure will be on to bounce back this year. Nat Fyfe is back from injury but the question still remains – can the Dockers get back to their 2015 form and shoot up the ladder once again?
14) North Melbourne
It’s time to play the kids. That’s the mantra at Arden St after a brutal Roo cull that blindsided everyone late last season. With expectations set moderately, North fans should look forward to seeing the next wave of younger players as they try to climb the ladder. With Mason Wood out for the opening part of the season, highly rated draftee Jy Simpkin should get a game and looks ready to go. The likes of Mitch Hibberd, Ed Vickers-Willis, Taylor Garner, Ryan Clarke and Corey Wagner will all get more games while Nathan Hrovat looks a shrewd acquisition from the Bulldogs. The looming ruck battle also looks set to go down to the wire. Will Brad Scott back Majak Daw in now Drew Petrie is no longer there, or will Braydon Preuss earn a debut on the back of a solid JLT Series?
15) Port Adelaide
You could cut the tension at Port Adelaide with the knife. The chairman is edgy and that has only ramped up the pressure on coach Ken Hinkley and the entire playing group. Internally they would see themselves as a genuine finals chance but that would take a sharp uplift in form from their second tier. Pick 18 from 2016 draft Sam Powell-Pepper and Ollie Wines in one midfield is an imposing proposition but even so, this remains a side that is still searching to recapture their blistering 2014 form. It’s finals or bust for Ken Hinkley and he knows it.
16) Richmond
An off-season of relative stability at Tigerland has seen expectations dialled back and a re-tooling take place both on and off the field. Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy are both welcome arrivals for a midfield too reliant on Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin, while Toby Nankervis plays round one and is a seamless fit. Richmond are a part of a group of teams that could make finals if things go their way, but in 2017, there are sides who should improve more and climb the ladder just that little bit quicker. Brighter times are ahead for the Tigers as 2017 looms as a year of consolidation and green shoots across the park.
17) Brisbane
Chris Fagan has arrived alongside star recruit Hugh McCluggage and suddenly Brisbane looks like they’re heading in the right direction. Season 2017 comes too soon to see any sort of finals push but away from the Melbourne spotlight they are building a formidable spine in years to home. Harris Andrews and Dan McStay will anchor the defence for 10 years while Eric Hipwood and Josh Schache can only get better as their frame catches up with their immense talent. Dayne Beams is back after having his 2016 wrecked by injury, so more improvement away from wins and losses will be how Fagan’s side will be judged.
18) Carlton
Seven wins in 2016 was above expectations for a Blues side hovering slightly above ground zero. The list across the board lacks elite talent and that will ultimately mean they lose more games than they win. In saying that, Brendan Bolton showed last year just how good a coach he is and patience is required. Carlton fans can look forward to the continual development of their young forward line as Jack Silvagni, Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay play together. Sam Petrevski-Seton has had an injury interrupted pre-season but the No.6 draft pick should add class to the Blues midfield when fit. A successful season for Carlton looks like this – a clear progression with younger players as well as establishing a settled best 22 going forward.