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Saturday, 24 January 2026

Public transport ‘not keeping pace’ with Melbourne’s population boom

Melbourne’s population is predicted to rise by 1.3 million people in the next 20 years – adding as many new citizens as live in Adelaide today. But plans to extend public transport in the city to deal with its growth currently amount to one new...

Corinna Hente profile image
by Corinna Hente
Public transport ‘not keeping pace’ with Melbourne’s population boom

Melbourne’s population is predicted to rise by 1.3 million people in the next 20 years – adding as many new citizens as live in Adelaide today. But plans to extend public transport in the city to deal with its growth currently amount to one new train line and two new bus routes. A leading transport expert warns Melbourne may not be able to cope.

By JASON WALLS

MELBOURNE’S public transport system will struggle to cope with a predicted population surge the size of Adelaide, according to a leading expert.

Professor Graham Currie, Monash University’s Chair of Public Transport, said public transport plans were not keeping pace with the growing city, which is estimated to increase by 1.3 million people over the next 20 years.

"We're not keeping pace in any way shape or form in our future plans for the growth that we have,” he said.

The comments come less than a week after computer failure led to the closure of the Burnley and Domain tunnels, bringing traffic to a standstill and leaving motorists stranded for up to two hours.

Prof Currie has flagged “several hundred new bus routes” as the best solution for alleviating congestion.

Buses had the potential to be the “backbone of the city” but were let down by the infrequency of services and a poor public image, he said.

“The average frequency of a bus in Melbourne at the peak is a bus every 30 minutes, whereas the trams are seven and a half, trains are 10 to 15.

“Because the buses are low frequency, they have a terrible image… [but] they’re actually the way forward.”

Public Transport Users Association President Daniel Bowen agreed that buses were often seen as a “poor cousin” and needed a “boost”.

Mr Bowen said in many suburbs buses were commuters' only option and more frequent services were needed to reduce traffic.

“A bus every half hour is just not good enough to get people out of their car,” he said.

A new bus network would come at a cost of several billion dollars but Prof Currie said it was the option that would provide the “biggest bang for buck”. But he said funding was a key sticking point.

Fares only cover 25 per cent of public transport costs so substantial additional funding would be required.

Prof Currie said he favoured "getting the problem to start funding the solution" by introducing congestion charges, but with voters unlikely to embrace any increase in tolls, he admitted the idea was politically unpopular.

“The government that puts that in place won’t be in power any more, which means it won’t happen,” he said.

But with the Adelaide-sized population hike in the offing, Prof Currie said something had to be done.

“Adelaide's got 130 bus routes, six railway lines, three light railways and a north-east busway. The current commitment to deal with this growth is two bus routes and one railway line,” he said. “That's it."

Nine per cent of all travel in Melbourne is via public transport; in Adelaide it is just 4 per cent.

"If we want to be as bad as Adelaide, we'd have Adelaide's public transport system,” Prof Currie said.

Public Transport Victoria was unavailable for comment, but in a statement last month said it was overhauling bus timetables in November to improve connections between trains and buses.

Chief Executive Ian Dobbs said the improvements would “provide a more streamlined service” and “better co-ordinate with train timetables”.

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