Trump or Clinton: Which is best for Australia?

By MATILDA BOSELEY

The world is on the brink of what may be the most divisive and talked-about election in US history.

As the president of the US, Republican candidate Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would have differing impacts on Australia in certain key areas. 

Senior lecturer in American politics and foreign policy at Sydney University Dr David Smith said the potential impact was substantial.

“If Trump is elected president, I see a serious possibility of a bad market reaction that could cause a global recession before he even takes his oath of office,” he said.  

Lecturer in US foreign policy at the same university Dr Sarah Graham said it was hard to know how Mr Trump would act, given a number of changes in his stance.

These experts from the university's United State Study Centre here look at two key areas that affect Australia: the TPP and  the South China Sea territorial dispute.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP)

The TPP, which aims to lower tariffs and trade barriers, may be the largest free trade agreement ever proposed. It covers 12 Pacific rim nations –  including the US, Japan, Australia, Brunei, New Zealand and Mexico – and 36.2 per cent of the world's GDP.

While a final proposal was signed in February this year, it has not yet been finally ratified. The negotiations have been fraught with controversy, with the public split on whether it will benefit or exploit the countries involved.

What does Hillary Clinton think?

Dr Smith said Ms Clinton was involved in early negotiations and broadly favoured the TPP, although she has said she was unhappy with the final deal.

While Ms Clinton was instrumental in the TPP’s early negotiation as secretary of state, asserting it was the “gold standard in trade agreements” to an Australian audience at Techport, Adelaide, she reversed her views in 2015.

In a PBS News Hour interview in October 2015, Ms Clinton stated: “As of today, I am not in favour of what I have learned about it … I don’t believe it’s going to meet the high bar I have set.”

What does Donald Trump think?

The TPP is a complete no-go for Mr Trump.

Dr Graham said Mr Trump had made his opposition to the TPP one of the major positions of his campaign. He has suggested it undermines US workers and allows China to "cheat and take advantage".

However, this raised questions, as one of the major criticisms of the TPP has been the deliberate and possibly even antagonistic exclusion of China from the agreement.

What might this mean for Australia? 

Both Dr Graham and Dr Smith said, considering the length of TPP negotiations, it would be extremely difficult for either candidate to renegotiate at this point.

“Trump will be very unpredictable," Dr Smith said.

“If he is serious about imposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports, we could see a destructive trade war between two of our three biggest trading partners. That would almost certainly hurt Australia’s economy—it would hurt the whole world’s economy.”

The South China Seas territorial crisis

This has become one of the most contentious areas in Australia’s relationship with the US and China.

China is in the process of creating artificial sand islands to push its claim to the South China Sea. 

The UN last month ruled that China had no right to the territory and should withdraw, and that its actions were a violation of the Philippines' rights in the area. But China said the ruling had no binding force and reasserted its rights to the area.

Australia's support for the UN ruling brought an immediate response, with China warning us to stay away from the dispute. 

Australia relies on passage through this contended territory and although it is eager to support the US, it cannot afford to alienate China, a nation responsible for more than 26 per cent of our annual trade. 

What does Hillary Clinton think?

Dr Smith said the Obama administration wanted to contain Chinese territorial ambitions in the area.

“It has responded in kind to low-level Chinese provocations … we would expect to see a continuation of these policies under Hillary Clinton,” he said.

Ms Clinton raised the hackles of Chinese officials with her statement at the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi that the US held “a national interest in freedom of navigation”.

She stopped short of a stronger military stance, stating that the US would “oppose the use or threat of force by any claimant”.

What does Donald Trump think?

Dr Graham said Mr Trump tended "to pull back from his anti-intervention discourse when it comes to the South China Sea".

Dr Graham said Mr Trump would continue to protect maritime passage, however he “flings around a lot of different positions and it’s very hard to see how what he is saying at the moment might translate in a year’s time”.

Since becoming the presidential nominee, Mr Trump said in a New York Times interview: “Would I go to war? Look, let me just tell you. There’s a question I wouldn’t want to answer. Because I don’t want to say I won’t or I will.”

What might this mean for Australia?

Dr Graham said if Australia was perceived to be meddling in China's affairs, there would be "ramifications". 

“However, we are fundamentally with the US; rhetorically and diplomatically we will follow their lead,” she said.

Any aggressive actions by the US in resolving the South China Sea debate might force Australia to compromise one of its most important trade relationships, she said.

And, as such, Mr Trump may be more likely to place us in this awkward diplomatic and economic locus.

Who would be best for Australia?

Ms Clinton would constitute a continuation of the policies of the Obama administration, while Mr Trump, although unpredictable, is focused on distancing the US from China.

“There is no doubt that Prime Minister (Malcolm) Turnbull would be privately hoping for a Clinton administration, as she represents stability," Dr Graham said.

“She was part of the pivot towards Asia … and Australia wants the US to engage in the Asia-Pacific. It is a no-brainer to hope for predictability in our most important relationship.”