Brexit deadline: The no-deal possibility

By ANDY MANGELSDORF

As a “no-deal Brexit” becomes a serious possibility, the British Government has sought to allay fears by publishing a series of contingency plans that address far-reaching concerns about the British exit from the European Union.

Among the 24 documents released late last month, the British Government covered action plans for such areas as trade, business, food shortages, workplace rights and welfare.

The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Matt Hancock, issued an additional statement urging healthcare providers  not to overstock on medicine – they were promised an additional six weeks’ supply from the government to avoid shortages.

It has now been more than two years since Britain voted to leave the EU and time is running out for Britain to reach a deal, in turn avoiding a “no-deal” situation with the EU by March next year.

Until now, both sides of the negotiations did not expect it would come to this seemingly impossible juncture.

But what exactly is a no-deal Brexit?

Monash University’s Brexit expert Dr Ben Wellings said negotiations hadn't progressed very far. 

“A no-deal Brexit means that no agreement has been reached between the UK and the EU on the terms of their [new] relationship after March 2019.”

The renegotiation of their relationship, which covers issues including economic matters and border control, must be agreed upon before March 29, 2019, which is when the UK is set to formally leave the EU.

In a best-case scenario, Britain would seek to achieve all its key negotiating points and the EU theirs. However, several points have caused issues between the EU and the UK recently.

Why is no-deal Brexit such a big problem?

Fundamental to leaving the EU is renouncing the free movement of goods, services, capital and people across the European Union. From the moment the British Government declared that they sought to leave the EU, this has been an extremely contentious issue largely because this freedom of movement is widely considered to be great for trade.

Dr Wellings said that worryingly, much of the negotiation progress had not advanced beyond the theory.

“A lot of the post-Brexit relationship has been agreed in principle, but nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,” he said.

Dr Wellings said one of the major sticking points was the border between Northern Ireland (in the UK) and the Republic of Ireland.

Northern Ireland has an open border with the Irish Republic, which is also a member state of the EU. If the UK needs to close their border with the EU, then it makes sense to close this border once again.

At this point it gets tricky.

Birmingham University International politics Professor David Dunn said if Brexit was not implemented with great care on this particular issue, there could be a resurgence of unrest on the border that harked back to the bitter sectarian divisions that lasted 30 years until the 1990s in Northern Ireland. 

The British Army heavily monitored the border between the two nations during the conflict but since the Good Friday agreement of 1998, the border has been reopened.

“The Irish question is massively important. [It shows] the non-workability of any Brexit suggestion that is put forward,” he said.

How have negotiations reached this point?

The EU and the UK have taken opposing negotiating positions. This has led to protracted negotiations, and with this the possibility of reaching a no-deal Brexit from the EU.

Prof Dunn said the UK wanted to have its cake and eat it too.

“Britain wanted to [revoke] membership of the EU [and] the jurisdiction of the European accord, yet still have all the benefits of membership. That is not going to be acceptable to the European Union,” he said.

“It’s an unreasonable request.”

Time is running out for a deal

There are not many months to go before Britain is to formally leaves\ the EU.

“The UK will need to secure the deal by late October in order for it to be ratified across the EU and by the UK Parliament in time for a March 29 exit,” said Dr Wellings.

“This is a complex process in which the outcome is in no way assured.”

Dr Wellings said the EU would only undermine itself by allowing the UK a comfortable Brexit.

“The final deal must be worse for the UK being out of the EU than being in it, otherwise what is the point of the EU's existence?”